A Society Split by Choice

First published in tg-channel Cliomechanics in Russian

In any population that has spread widely, two alternative survival strategies emerge. Some individuals opt for intense competition (social stress) in the struggle for dominance and control over relatively accessible resources. Others prefer resource sources associated with risk and unpredictability but within a far less competitive environment. Since humans are one of the most widespread species on the planet, second perhaps only to unicellular life, this applies to them in full. People constantly face a choice: the pressure of society or the pressure of the environment; physical comfort at the cost of high population density, or sparsely populated expanses with risks to survival—in other words, to fight or to seek a new path.

In reality, these are not just polar extremes but a whole spectrum of transitions between them. However, as a population's territory expands, the center-periphery gradient becomes sharper, and human specialization toward one or the other strategy at the center and the periphery becomes more pronounced. Meanwhile, active personalities with the potential to enact societal change tend to concentrate near the polar extremes. Those in the middle—the guided majority, unwilling or unable to make a clear choice because any action consumes energy and resources—always lose out the most.

When carriers of both strategies are equally provisioned with resources, the strategies are equally viable. However, since such a scenario belongs to the realm of fantasy, and external conditions are constantly changing—causing population fluctuations—this equality is perpetually disrupted. The more frequent the fluctuations, the sharper the polarization and the fewer those left in the middle, as they inevitably lose out the most. When conditions deteriorate while population numbers remain stable or grow, those who prefer social stress gain the advantage. When population numbers decline or the structure of the habitat is disrupted, those who prefer risk and unpredictability come out ahead.

Thus, we arrive at the following. Territorial expansion drives specialization toward the strategies and creates gradients of social group density and environmental extremity. The intensification of these gradients causes strategy differentiation, which, under fluctuating external conditions, begins to enhance the overall resilience of the entire system. For each state of the ecological and social environment, an optimal mix of both strategies develops, ensuring optimal reproduction of the spatial and social structure of the entire society. Therefore, we can speak of a sorting of carriers of both strategies across the entire range, but in varying proportions. This sustains the process of systemic reproduction by segregating carriers of alternative strategies from each other at any given point within the range, while uniting carriers of similar strategies into groups that uphold shared values, common goals, and methods for achieving them.

CONCLUSIONS:

• The center, due to the necessity of overcoming social stress, always possesses a higher level of organization than the periphery.
• Population growth generates expansion from the center to the periphery, while its decline triggers movement from the periphery toward the center.
• The worse the external conditions, the more attractive the center becomes, and the stronger the level of social stress within it.
• During a severe systemic crisis, societal organization cannot fall below the level of organization inherent in structures representing strategies alternative to the mainstream societal strategy: e.g., religious communities, subcultures, criminal organizations, etc.
• Combating alternative strategies—enforcing societal uniformity—simplifies its structure and makes its functioning less energy- and resource-intensive. However, if this fight is completely successful, the entire societal structure risks collapse during a systemic crisis.

Sources:
📖 Behavioral Mechanisms of Evolutionary Optimization: Sorting Instead of Selection?
📖 On the "Immortality" of the Sicilian Mafia.
📖 How Civilizations Collapse.
📖 On the Usefulness of Composure, Safety-Net Predators, and Searching for Rock Bottom.